The Patriots opened as 14.5-point favorites as they travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars in Week 16.
While the loss to the 49ers still stings a bit this morning, there are still plenty of reasons for optimism. One, the Pats played their worst football of the season against their toughest opponent of the season, suffered nearly the worst luck possible (I’m still trying to figure out the odds of a team recovering 8 out of 9 fumbles in a game) and STILL only lost by a TD. Two, they have a safe place to land this week against a Jacksonville team that is largely incapable of playing anything resembling NFL football. Three, we aren’t the Jets. And four, the nature of their loss against the 49ers may make a few oddsmakers temporarily forget how good the Pats really are right now, so there is money to be made on this spread.
I’m having a difficult time putting words to how inexplicably bad the Jaguars have been this season. In the last three weeks, they’ve lost consecutive games to the rest of the AFC East. Stop and let that stew for a few minutes. That’s a team with a rookie quarterback, a team with an Amish quarterback, and a team with a blind, one-armed child molester at quarterback … and the Jags have lost to those teams by a combined total of six touchdowns. Eight of their 12 losses have come by more than a TD, and 7 of those losses were by more than 2 scores. In summary, the Jags are blech.
Hoddie’s stellar record in bounce-back games after a loss is well-documented, and I have a feeling that Brady and Company will be out to make a statement in this game. Normally a 2-TD spread would make me pause for a few minutes, but not against this opponent. I’m taking the Patriots and laying the points, and they’d be my first choice to add to a parlay.
Other Lines I Like
Redskins (-4.5) @ Eagles
After watching Philly flail around like blindfolded foxy boxers against the Bengals on Thursday night, I am officially done wagering money on that team this year. The Redskins are finding ways to win, and they shouldn’t have much trouble continuing that trend against the Jets of the NFC East.
Texans (-7.5) vs. Vikings
The things that Adrian Peterson is doing right now are borderline inhuman, but he’s only one man. The strength of the Texans’ D is in the front 7, and I think they’ll be able to keep Peterson bottled up to an extent. And if AD ain’t moving the sticks, that offense ain’t moving.
2012 Record ATS: 27-19
Record ATS since 2010: 98-86-4