The only thing that limits Brady’s upside this week is the possibility that he’ll be pulled in the third or fourth quarter as the team salts away a big lead. His floor is probably 300+ yards and 3 TDs, and there is a strong potential for more.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Stevan Ridley
This game shapes up to be a blowout for the Pats, and the Chiefs give up 134 yards per game on the ground. I think this trio will eclipse that average. Look for BJGE to rack up 70+ yards and a TD, Woodhead to put up around 50-60 total yards and Ridley to flirt with 50 total yards as well. Any New England running back should be a better-than-average play this week. I wouldn’t even fault a team for trotting Kevin Faulk out there if they’re desperate.
Wes Welker/Deion Branch/Chad Ochocinco
Welker has scored just once in his past five games, but he stands a decent chance of reaching paydirt this week against a KC defense that has given up 16 passing TDs on the year. Look for him to eclipse 80 yards receiving, but don’t be surprised if he sits for part of the second half if the Pats have a big lead since he’s still nursing a few minor dings. Branch has been one of Brady’s favorite targets in the red zone, but he hasn’t put up big yardage numbers. Brady should have time to find him downfield against a weak pass rush, so he could be in line for one of his best games of the season with 70+ yards and a score. If you are desperate because of bye weeks, Ochocinco could be a defensible play as well since he figures to get plenty of reps if the Pats build a big lead and protect their stars.
Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez
Gronkowski has been murder on opposing secondaries this year, and I’d expect the Chiefs to focus on containing him in the passing game. The Chiefs give up a ton of yards through the air though, so expect Gronk to still get north of 60 yards and possibly score. I am high on Hernandez again this week, as KC has been vulnerable to the big play. Hernandez should find the end zone this week and will likely top 50 yards receiving.
It could be all extra points for Gostkowski this week. Look for 4+ XP and no more than 1 FG.
New England Defense/Special Teams
This is a good week to use the Pats D. The Chiefs will be without Matt Cassel and should struggle to move the ball with backup Tyler Palko under center. KC has allowed 22 sacks this year, so look for the Pats to rack up around 4 sacks and a turnover or two with around 14 points allowed. They are easily a top 10 play this week.